This Podcast with Dr. Surendra Pal, Director of the Met Department in Chandigarh. The interview covers various aspects of the Indian Meteorological Department (मौसम विभाग) and current weather patterns and challenges. Dr. Pal clarifies that personnel in the department are often referred to as meteorologists or meteorological scientists, with diverse backgrounds including engineering (software, civil), agriculture, physics, and maths, depending on the application areas in weather physics, and maths, depending on the application areas in weather.

The Indian Met Department has a long history, established in 1875, recently celebrating its 150th anniversary. Its beginnings were modest with limited surveillance and equipment. However, significant changes have occurred, particularly after the 2004 tsunami, which highlighted the department’s crucial impact and led to increased government focus. The Ministry of Earth Sciences was formed in 2008, under which the department operates. Since 2008, there has been rapid progress in terms of observations, human resources, and computing facilities. Today, India is considered among the leading forecasting centres globally.

The department now utilises advanced technology for forecasting. This includes 41 Doppler radars installed across the country, providing surveillance every 10 minutes, monitoring extreme weather events and enabling forecasts for specific areas (districts, blocks, villages) within the next three to five hours. This allows for timely warnings to the public and governments. The accuracy of forecasts has significantly improved, by about 40% over the last 10 years, leading to more accurate predictions.

Forecasting is a scientific process based on atmospheric physics, utilising numerical weather models. The process involves gathering vast amounts of observational data from various systems across the country and globally. This data is processed by software, taking into account the Earth’s rotation and revolution. The models simulate atmospheric conditions to predict future weather, such as rain or temperature, over the next 10 days. This requires advanced supercomputers, such as Pratyush, one of the fastest supercomputers globally, to process the calculations quickly. Other crucial data sources include satellites (like 3D-R satellites capable of assessing cloud water content, height, movement, and potential damage) and radars. The experience and wisdom of forecasters (climatology) also play a role in fine-tuning the model outputs. The forecast products provide details like rainfall, temperature, and wind speed.

The department has implemented advanced alert systems. Messages are sent out every three hours. The Sachet portal is a government initiative through which alerts are pushed to state governments (specifically disaster management departments), who then forward them to the population in affected areas via mobile phones. This system provides information up to 24 hours in advance, allowing people to plan activities like travel or events. For phenomena like dense fog, alerts help sectors like aviation and manage public schedules. These messages are free and widely accessible via phone downloads. The skill accuracy of alerts is high, close to 100% for some phenomena.

However, the interview highlights significant shifts in weather patterns, which are a major challenge. The winter season has shifted, with delayed snowfall in traditional months (December/January) occurring later (February). The monsoon season has also changed, with its withdrawal from North-West India and regions like Punjab and Haryana being delayed until October. These shifts impact cropping cycles and agricultural practices. Another observed change is the pattern of rainfall; instead of prolonged, gentle rain over several days, there are now intense, short bursts of heavy rain. This leads to increased run-off, less groundwater recharge, and flash floods, causing significant damage to life and property.

Dr. Pal attributes these changes largely to climate change and rising global temperatures. Even a small increase (like 1 degree) can significantly affect weather systems. Higher temperatures alter wind direction and speed, increasing the severity of weather events like rain, storms, or hail. This increased severity means weather systems are more intense and release precipitation in shorter periods.

Addressing these challenges requires immediate action. Key areas for improvement include enhancing observation systems and communication. The Mission Mausam initiative is a major government effort aimed at making India a “weather ready and climate smart nation”. This involves installing over 50 new radars, automatic weather stations, and improving satellite observations. The mission also includes integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning into forecasting systems to improve accuracy and speed. While technology reduces the need for human intervention in some processes, human expertise remains crucial for overall skill and decision-making. The goal is to minimise loss of life and property due to weather-related disasters.

Specific phenomena and related issues were also discussed:

• Snowfall in Chandigarh is unlikely due to insufficient consistently low temperatures and lack of mountainous terrain, although frost can occur.
• A good monsoon forecast for June to September is positive for agriculture, water resources, and power generation.
• The increase in frequency and severity of extreme weather events like cloud bursts is real, not just due to increased social media activity, though awareness has also increased. Events like the 2013 Uttarakhand tragedy (Kedarnath) were likely caused by Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), where meltwater lakes in mountains burst due to excessive accumulation and/or heavy rain. Monitoring vulnerable lakes and weather conditions in those areas is crucial. Certain topographies, like tall mountains and narrow valleys, are particularly favourable for cloudbursts as they can trap clouds, leading to intense rainfall.
• Artificial rain (cloud seeding) involves seeding clouds with material (often via helicopters) to induce cloud formation and precipitation. This is not a natural process and attempts like the one in Dubai may face issues if not properly studied or if the induction is excessive, interfering with existing atmospheric conditions.
• Changes observed in local areas like Bhiwani (disappearance of sand dunes, increased greenery) could be attributed to human intervention like irrigation canals and changing agricultural practices. Changes in weather patterns, such as increased activity in the Arabian Sea influencing rainfall in Western India, may also play a role, although significant average rainfall changes haven’t been noted locally.
• Cyclones, large anti-cyclonic activities monitored by satellites, ships, and aircraft, are navigated by tracking their position and the movement of surrounding clouds, similar to depictions in films like ‘Twister’.
• Drastic, sudden shifts to extreme climates, like an ice age depicted in ‘The Day After Tomorrow’, are not realistic over short periods. Significant climate changes occur over thousands of years as part of natural cycles. Nature has inherent cycles and drainage systems.

A significant reason for the increase in disasters and loss of life and property is human encroachment on natural drainage systems, particularly in mountainous areas and along riverbanks. Building homes, cities, roads, and hotels in areas that are part of a river’s natural course (which may be used only periodically, perhaps every 100-200 years) leads to structures being destroyed when the river reclaims its path. Disasters are frequently observed near roads, rivers, canals, and tunnels where encroachment or unsuitable construction practices have occurred. Sustainable and scientific development, considering geological factors like slope structure, bearing capacity, and groundwater levels, is crucial, especially in hilly areas. Experts in geosciences should be involved in such projects.

The Indian Met Department holds a high international standing, ranking among the top 4-5 nations globally alongside countries like the US, European centres, Japan, and China. India is at par with developed nations in terms of gadgets, equipment, expertise, and outreach. International meetings involve discussions on challenges like monsoon predictability, knowledge exchange, capacity building, and data sharing. India also provides cyclone services to several nations in the Indian Ocean. The department actively integrates technology and models from other countries into its systems.

Looking ahead, challenges will increase with development and infrastructure growth. Extreme weather events will continue to impact daily life, necessitating immediate measures to cope with disasters. Strengthening infrastructure to withstand severe weather (e.g., high winds) is crucial. Becoming “weather-wise” involves following scientific guidelines and utilising the information provided by the department to minimise losses. While challenges exist, leveraging technology and expert knowledge can significantly reduce the impact of future weather events.